Are Prediction Markets Legal in Canada?

The main source for this explainer is Joint CSA and CIRO Staff Notice 91-307, published August 27, 2026. We also read Alberta’s follow-up, each company’s own terms, and the CRA’s guidance. This page is general information, not legal or tax advice.

At a glance

Question	What the primary source says	Source
Are event contracts on economic, environmental or financial indicators allowed?	Yes, but only through CIRO dealers authorized to facilitate them, and only contracts “traded and cleared through certain U.S. regulated exchanges and clearing houses”	CSA/CIRO Staff Notice 91-307
Are sports and entertainment event contracts regulated as securities?	Not regulated as such. CSA staff say they “should not be regulated within securities and derivatives legislation”, although they may technically fit the definitions	CSA/CIRO Staff Notice 91-307
Who regulates sports and entertainment contracts in Alberta?	AGLC, “in accordance with the Criminal Code of Canada and provincial gaming legislation”	AGLC guidance, August 28, 2026
Can Canadians trade on Kalshi directly?	No. Canada is on Kalshi’s list of Restricted Jurisdictions for event-contract trading	Kalshi Member Agreement
Can Canadians trade on Polymarket?	Not from Alberta, B.C., Ontario or Quebec	Polymarket Terms of Use and geoblock list
Is Wealthsimple Predict regulated?	Wealthsimple says it is one of two CIRO-regulated brokerages that can offer event contracts	Wealthsimple Predict page
Has the CRA said how profits are taxed?	No. We found no CRA guidance on prediction markets	CRA folio S3-F9-C1 (silent on the topic)

What Canadian securities regulators say

The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) is the umbrella group for the provincial and territorial securities regulators, including the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC). The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) oversees, in the CSA’s words, “all investment dealers, mutual fund dealers and trading activity on Canada’s debt and equity marketplaces.” On August 27, 2026, staff of both published Staff Notice 91-307, which covers “event contracts, prediction contracts or prediction market contracts.” The notice says it was issued “in light of growing interest in prediction markets in Canada.”

It makes three points.

1. Sports and entertainment contracts should not be regulated as securities. The notice accepts that event contracts “may fall within the broad definitions of securities or derivatives.” But it says:

“CSA staff’s view is that Event Contracts based on sports and entertainment events or outcomes should not be regulated within securities and derivatives legislation.”

“CIRO staff do not consider it appropriate to facilitate or approve an application by their dealer members to trade these types of Event Contracts.”

2. A narrow category is already permitted. Some CIRO investment dealers have been authorized to facilitate event contracts, under terms and conditions set by CIRO with CSA staff. The CSA news release says there are two. Under those terms, the notice says they “may only facilitate trading of a limited set of Event Contracts that are traded and cleared through certain U.S. regulated exchanges and clearing houses, namely those that are based on economic, environmental or financial indicators.” It adds that trading outside those categories “has not been authorized by CIRO or the CSA,” and that the terms “may be subject to further restrictions or other changes.” A footnote in the notice refers readers to an earlier CIRO bulletin and a joint CSA/CIRO media advisory, which we have not reviewed here.

3. Other contracts are still under review. For event contracts based on other kinds of events, the notice says “assessment of these products is ongoing” and that “further guidance on Event Contracts based on other types of events will follow.” (Election contracts, for example, are not among the permitted categories.)

The 30-day binary options rule

The notice reminds firms of Multilateral Instrument 91-102, Prohibition of Binary Options. This rule prohibits “advertising, offering, selling or otherwise trading a binary option having a term to maturity of less than 30 days” with an individual. It came into force on December 12, 2017. It applies in every Canadian jurisdiction except British Columbia; the CSA notice on the rule says B.C. handles binary options under its own BC Notice 2017/02.

Event contracts are yes-or-no contracts, so the rule matters for any that would settle in less than 30 days. Wealthsimple says every contract it lists complies with “the 30-day term-to-maturity requirement currently in effect in Canada.”

Alberta: AGLC’s August 2026 guidance

Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC) responded the next day. Its one-page iGaming Guidance Document – Event Contracts is dated August 28, 2026. It says:

“As Alberta’s gaming regulator, Alberta Gaming, Liquor & Cannabis (AGLC) supports the position of the CSA and CIRO staff. Products based on sports or entertainment events or outcomes are regulated by AGLC in accordance with the Criminal Code of Canada and provincial gaming legislation.”

It invites any business that wants to offer these products to contact AGLC, pointing to “the recent launch of an open iGaming market in Alberta.” It also tells players:

“Albertans are advised to only play on regulated iGaming sites; a complete list of authorized operator sites can be found on the Alberta iGaming Corporation website.”

Alberta has also banned election betting on its regulated sites. An AGLC iGaming bulletin added section 4.6.5 p) to its Standards and Requirements for Internet Gaming, effective March 17, 2026, “to prohibit betting on political events (e.g., elections, by-elections, leadership contests).”

Other provinces. AGLC’s statement is the only one from a provincial gaming regulator that we found. A search of the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario’s website on September 30, 2026 returned nothing on prediction markets.

Kalshi, Polymarket and Wealthsimple: what their own terms say

Kalshi

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange. Its help centre says people “can trade on Kalshi from many countries,” subject to its Member Agreement. The Member Agreement we downloaded on September 30, 2026 lists Canada among its “Restricted Jurisdictions.” It says members “are prohibited from trading Event Contracts on the Platform” if they are domiciled or located there. The agreement adds that this restriction applies “solely to the trading of Event Contracts” and does not in itself stop someone from having an account or viewing the platform.

Bottom line: you can’t trade Kalshi’s event contracts directly from Canada. Wealthsimple Predict, one of the two CIRO-authorized dealers, says Kalshi is its exchange (see below).

Polymarket

Polymarket’s international site is run by Adventure One QSS, Inc. Its Terms of Use, effective August 11, 2026, say trading “is not permitted by persons or entities who reside in, are located in” a list of places that includes Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. They add: “Use of a virtual private network (‘VPN’) or any similar tool to attempt to or to circumvent the restrictions set forth herein is strictly prohibited.” Polymarket says accounts that break the rules may be put in close-only mode.

Polymarket’s published geoblock list puts CA-BC, CA-ON, CA-AB and CA-QC in “close-only” mode: users “can close existing positions but cannot open new ones.”

The other provinces and the territories are not on Polymarket’s list. That is Polymarket’s own decision, not an approval by a regulator. Staff Notice 91-307 says anyone trading or facilitating trading in event contracts that are securities or derivatives “must follow applicable requirements under securities and derivatives legislation, such as registration or recognition requirements.” It also says sports and entertainment contracts belong under gaming law, not securities law.

Wealthsimple Predict

Wealthsimple’s Predict page states the facts that matter for regulation:

• Categories: contracts on “financial markets, the economy, and climate.” That matches the categories the CSA and CIRO permit. There are no sports or elections.
• The exchange: “Kalshi is our prediction markets exchange.”
• The regulator: “We’re one of two brokerages, regulated by CIRO, that can offer this trading product in Canada.”
• Currency: all markets trade in U.S. dollars.
• The 30-day rule: Wealthsimple says its contracts comply with “the 30-day term-to-maturity requirement currently in effect in Canada.”

We don’t rate or recommend any trading product. The details above are quoted from Wealthsimple’s own page.

Taxes: what the CRA has and hasn’t said

The CRA has not published guidance on prediction markets or event contracts. Its technical folio on gambling, S3-F9-C1, doesn’t mention them. So the answer depends on which set of CRA rules applies to you.

If the CRA treats a position as…	The CRA rule	Result for a typical person
A bet	Gambling produces taxable income only if it amounts to “carrying on the business of gambling” (folio ¶1.12). The CRA’s plain-language page lists lottery winnings of any amount as not reported, unless they are business, employment or property income, or a prize for achievement	Usually not taxed, and losses usually not deductible
A contract you buy and sell	Guide T4037 says selling property can produce a capital gain or loss, or a gain on “income account” (business income)	Capital gain or loss, or business income if you trade like a business

A note on currency. Because Predict trades in USD, convert each purchase and sale to CAD at the exchange rate on that day (T4037). Separately, a net FX gain or loss on the USD cash itself is reported only on the part over $200 a year, and only if it is on capital account.

Two points from the CRA’s own text help you judge where you fall:

• The gambling-business test is strict. The folio quotes the Tax Court: “Gambling - even regular, frequent and systematic gambling - is something that by its nature is not generally regarded as a commercial activity except under very exceptional circumstances.” It lists the factors the CRA weighs, including “the existence of special knowledge or inside information that enables the taxpayer to reduce the element of chance” and “the extent of the taxpayer’s gambling activities, including the number and frequency of bets” (¶1.15).
• Prediction markets don’t fit neatly. Unlike a lottery ticket, you can sell a position before the event. Wealthsimple itself compares Predict with its “other derivatives.” That is one reason treatment as capital or business income is at least arguable. It is our reading, not a CRA ruling.

What to do: keep a record of every buy, sell and settlement, with dates and U.S.-dollar and Canadian-dollar amounts. Get advice from a tax professional before you file. Our guide Are gambling winnings taxable in Canada? covers the gambling side in detail.

The U.S. court fight, briefly

In the U.S., Kalshi has sued several states that tried to apply gambling law to its sports event contracts. The federal appeals courts disagree:

• Third Circuit, April 6, 2026 (New Jersey): upheld an injunction for Kalshi, finding it had “a reasonable chance of success” on its argument that federal commodities law pre-empts state law.
• Ninth Circuit, August 28, 2026 (Nevada): affirmed in part and remanded in part. It upheld the dissolution of Kalshi’s injunction, holding that Kalshi “did not show a likelihood that the CEA preempts state gaming regulations as applied to its sports event contracts,” and sent Nevada’s challenge to Kalshi’s election contracts back to the lower court.
• Sixth Circuit, September 25, 2026 (Ohio and Tennessee): held that Kalshi had not shown its sports contracts are “swaps” and, “even assuming that Kalshi’s sports-event contracts are swaps,” that federal law “neither expressly nor impliedly preempts Ohio’s or Tennessee’s gambling laws.”

None of these cases changes Canadian law.

What changed recently

• September 25, 2026: the U.S. Sixth Circuit rules against Kalshi in its challenge to Ohio’s and Tennessee’s gambling laws.
• August 28, 2026: AGLC says it supports the CSA/CIRO position and regulates sports and entertainment event products as gaming in Alberta. The same day, the U.S. Ninth Circuit upholds the dissolution of Kalshi’s Nevada injunction.
• August 27, 2026: CSA and CIRO publish Staff Notice 91-307. CSA staff say sports and entertainment event contracts should not be regulated under securities law, and further guidance on other contract types is promised.
• August 11, 2026: Polymarket’s current Terms of Use take effect, listing Alberta, B.C., Ontario and Quebec as restricted.
• April 6, 2026: the U.S. Third Circuit upholds an injunction for Kalshi in New Jersey.
• March 17, 2026: AGLC bans betting on political events on Alberta’s regulated iGaming sites.

Practical next steps

• Want to bet on sports legally? Use your province’s regulated option. In Ontario, iGaming Ontario lists which sites are regulated. In Alberta, the Alberta iGaming Corporation publishes the registered iGaming sites. Our offshore sites guide covers the other provinces.
• Don’t use a VPN to get around a block. Polymarket’s terms forbid it, and your account can be put in close-only mode.
• Check before you trade. Securities regulators invite investor questions through your local securities regulator.
• Take a break if you need one. Ontario’s BetGuard lets you opt out of all regulated online gambling in the province for a period you choose, from 6 months to 5 years. Alberta’s Centralized Self-Exclusion program is at selfexclusion.ca.

Where to get help

Prediction markets can feel like investing, but a yes-or-no contract can lose everything you put in. If trading or betting is costing you more than you want, these services are free:

Province / territory	Help line	Hours
Ontario	ConnexOntario: 1-866-531-2600, or text CONNEX to 247247	24/7
Quebec	Jeu : aide et référence: 1-800-461-0140 (Montréal area 514-527-0140)	24/7
British Columbia	Gambling Support BC: 1-888-795-6111	24/7
Alberta	211 Alberta: dial 211 or text INFO to 211 · Addiction Helpline: 1-866-332-2322	24/7
Saskatchewan	Saskatchewan Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-306-6789	24 hours
Manitoba	Problem Gambling Helpline: 1-800-463-1554	24/7
New Brunswick	Addiction and mental health helpline: 1-866-355-5550	24/7
Nova Scotia	Mental Health and Addictions Crisis Line: 1-888-429-8167	24/7
Prince Edward Island	PEI Gambling Support Line: 1-855-255-4255	24/7
Newfoundland and Labrador	Gambling Help Line: 811	24 hours
Yukon	CMHA Yukon Reach Out Support Line: 1-844-533-3030	2 to 10 p.m.
Northwest Territories	811 Mental Health and Wellness Support Line: dial 811 and press 1, or 1-844-259-1793	24/7
Nunavut	Kamatsiaqtut Help Line: 1-800-265-3333 (Iqaluit 979-3333)	24/7
Anywhere in Canada, in crisis	Suicide Crisis Helpline: 988	24/7

Every number above is checked against its official source in our help lines guide, which also covers services for families and debt advice.

This explainer summarizes published positions of the CSA, CIRO, AGLC and the CRA, and the companies’ own terms, as of the date below. It is general information, not legal, investment or tax advice. We don’t link to or recommend any betting or trading site. Last reviewed September 30, 2026.